AAX - It's time to FLY !!! ✈🚀🚀🚀✈
AAX - It's time to FLY !!! ✈🚀🚀🚀✈
Background:
AirAsia X Berhad is a Malaysia-based company, which is engaged in providing long-haul air transportation services. It operates a fleet of more than 25 A330-300 aircraft. The airline serves the geographical region of North Asia, Australia, and West Asia and the Middle East and derives revenue through freight services, aircraft operating lease income, management fees and through other activity.
Catalyst:
1. Capital A chief executive officer Tan Sri Tony Fernandes said Capital A Bhd is optimistic of completing the disposal of its airline business to AirAsia X Bhd by October, paving the way for the group to seek removal of its Practice Note 17 (PN17) status by year end.
2. AirAsia aims to capture up to 45% of Malaysia’s overall aviation market and 70% of the domestic sector within the next two years, supported by new aircraft capacity and an international expansion strategy. Currently holds about 41% of Malaysia’s overall market and 60% of the domestic sector.
3. AirAsia X said it was commencing flights to Tashkent, Uzbekistan thrice weekly effective Oct 15, 2025.
4. AirAsia X Bhd will make its long-anticipated entry into Europe after 13 years with the launch of direct flights from Kuala Lumpur to Istanbul, Türkiye, starting Nov 14 with four times weekly flights. AAX aims to strengthen connectivity between Southeast Asia and Europe while also boost capacity to destinations such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia by leveraging Istanbul as a key entry point for passengers from Türkiye and the surrounding region.
5. AirAsia, has confirmed it is in discussions with a local partner in Vietnam as part of its plan to expand its footprint in Asean.
6. AirAsia Bhd is in talks with aircraft manufacturers for a major new aircraft order of up to 150 aircraft, said Capital A Bhd chief executive officer (CEO) Tan Sri Tony Fernandes. AirAsia announced an order for 50 A321XLR (extra long-range aircraft) worth RM51.7 billion (US$12.25 billion) with conversion rights for 20 more of the same aircraft type.
7. The prophecy originates from the 1999 manga The Future I Saw, which was re-popularized on social media in 2024. The manga depicts a major disaster in Japan in July 2025, which the artist claimed came to her in a dream. The widespread social media rumors led to a notable decline in travel to Japan from Asian countries, particularly Hong Kong and South Korea. Fares to Japan had to be cut after load factors fell to about 70 per cent from 90 per cent to stimulate demand, partly due to a viral 'prophecy' predicting a natural disaster. This weighed heavily on passenger revenue. Looking ahead, we expects earnings to improve as ticket prices normalise and new long-haul routes to Tashkent and Istanbul are launched later this year. Maintenance costs are also set to decline as fewer aircraft undergo major checks.
8. Maybank IB, which values the airline at RM2 a share compared with its current price of RM1.72, noted that AAX trades at just four times its expected 2025 earnings, well below the global average of nine times for budget airlines.
9. The recent decline in jet fuel prices further supports the group's efforts to sustain a disciplined cost structure. In 2Q, fuel prices fell to US$86 (RM362.71) per barrel, from US$99 per barrel in 1QFY2025. We expect AAX earnings to be buoyed by the weaker US dollar and jet fuel prices. We estimate that every 10 sen depreciation in the US dollar relative to the ringgit will accrete about RM55 million to earnings on a full-year basis, while every RM1 per barrel decline in jet fuel prices will accrete about RM15 million to earnings on a full-year basis
10. MALAYSIA welcomed 24.5 million foreign tourists in the first seven months of 2025, a 16.8 per cent increase compared to 21 million during the same period last year, according to Tourism, Arts and Culture Minister Datuk Seri Tiong King Sing driven by government strategies such as the Visa Liberalisation Plan, targeted industry incentives, and digital and airline-based promotional campaigns.
11. AirAsia have been key players in expanding international routes, bringing travelers from countries like China, Indonesia, and Singapore to Malaysia, a country that’s increasingly becoming a must-visit destination in Southeast Asia. AirAsia, the largest low-cost carrier in Malaysia, keeps expanding with new routes to major international destinations. For 2024, AirAsia has added flights to new and affordable routes to Wuhan, Ahmedabad, and Incheon.
12. Coming Budget 2026 for Visit Malaysia Year 2026 (VMY 2026) will boost flight volumes and higher passenger throughput. The government has set ambitious targets of 43mn foreign visitors in 2025 and 47m in 2026, covering both overnight tourists and same-day excursionists, with promotional efforts already underway since January 2025. The campaign will prioritise arrivals from Central Asia, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Europe, and Oceania, leveraging Malaysia’s connectivity and diverse tourism offerings. Budget 2026 is anticipated to provide an even higher allocation to further strengthen promotional campaigns, connectivity, and tourism-related investments, ensuring VMY 2026 delivers maximum economic impact.
Technical view:
EP 1.68 - 1.72
SP 1.54
RST 1.76 - 1.79
TP 1 1.83
TP 2 2.08
TP 3 2.42
Holding period: 6 months
b) Price above MA20, 50, 100 & 200
c) MA10 & MA20 stay above MA50
d) ADX, RSI and Stoschastic pointing up
e) MACD cross up and above 0 central line
d) ADX, RSI and Stoschastic pointing up
e) MACD cross up and above 0 central line
Disclaimer : The above opinion is never intended to be a BUY SELL CALL. The above article purely for education purpose base on observations, chart and data. Thank you.
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